Uncle Sean’s Update – 2/20/26

by | Feb 20, 2026 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

​Happy Friday!!!
 
Here is the Uncle Sean Update for 2/20/26 (subscribe here for free):
 
First up is some key economic updates (um, pardon me while I completely geek out 😊)..:
 

  • The BEA PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) came in 2.9% YoY for December with Core PCE at 3.0% (last month was 2.8% for both) – still running a hotter than the Fed’s 2% long range target.
    • Worth noting that services drove most of the monthly increase (Housing & Utilities, Recreational Services, and of course Healthcare and Financial Services & Insurance round out the top 4).  Interesting to me that Goods (other than food and energy) were mostly down for the month.
      • 👉 Recall that Healthcare and Social Assistance were what drove the vast majority of the 130,000 jobs added last month according to the BLS Jan Jobs Report.
    • Next release is scheduled for March 13.

 

  • The BEA GDP (Advanced Estimate) came in at 1.4% for 4Q2025 (3Q2025 was 4.4%; Dow Jones estimate was 2.5%).  Let’s break down the contributions to GDP 🤓:
    • Consumer Spending was 1.58% (3Q was 2.34%) – this is 113% of total 4Q GDP weight…  Precisely why we pay so much attention to inflation and jobs data (price stability and maximum employment). 😊
    • Business Investment was 0.66% (3Q was 0.03%)
    • Government Spending was -0.90% (3Q was +0.39%) with Federal at -1.15% (3Q was +0.17%) and State was +0.25% (3Q was 0.21%)
      • The BEA estimated that the government shutdown from Oct 1 – Nov 12 likely resulted in a subtraction of “about 1.0 percentage point from real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.” 
    • Exports were -0.10% (3Q was +1.00%) and Imports were 0.18% (3Q was +0.62%)
    • Second Estimate of 4Q2025 GDP is scheduled for March 13 and Third Estimate is scheduled for April 9 – so these numbers may still move a bit.

 
Back to the rest of the Update:
 

  • This week brings another CU acquisition of a bank as Alabama ONE Credit Union (charter 68595; total assets $1.5B) to acquire Peoples Independent Bank (FDIC 27233; total assets $477M).
    • This is a classic example of a $1.5B CU expanding their branch footprint by picking up a smaller bank ($477M) with lower cost of IB deposits and over 50% of their loan portfolio is Commercial (46.3% CRE plus 9.5% C&I).  Pretty much the standard M.O. of a CU acquisition of a bank.
    • This is the 2nd whole-bank acquisition announcement by a CU this year, so far (source: FedFis).

 

  • And an interesting acquisition (and another charter loss)…  PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: PFSI) announced they will acquire the subservicing business of Cenlar Capital Corporation which will bring Pennymac’s total portfolio to over $1T in unpaid principal balance (UPB) of mortgage loan servicing.
    • What makes this acquisition unique is the fact that Cenlar Capital Corporation is the bank holding company (PCO FR 3836880) for Cenlar FSB (FDIC 30996; total assets $899M).  Pennymac is acquiring Cenlar’s subservicing business as a non-bank entity focused exclusively on mortgage subservicing; and upon closing, “Cenlar will surrender its bank charter.”

 

  • The Branch is dead…  Long live the Branch… JPMorgan Chase announced plans to open more than 160 new branches in over 30 states and renovate nearly 600 locations this year.
    • This plan is part of Chase’s multiyear strategy announced in 2024, to open more than 500 new branches, renovate 1,700 locations, and hire 3,500 employees across the country over three years.

 

  • Interesting report coming out of the FDIC (from their Banking Issues in Focus series) – Bank Lending to Nondepository Financial Institutions.  Although the data is from 3Q2025, it summarizes a few key points:
    • Bank loans to NDFIs grew at a compound annual growth rate of 21.9 percent from 2010 to 2024, almost three times as fast as the next-fastest-growing segment.
    • Recently added Call Report fields show that more than half of bank lending to NDFIs is to credit intermediaries, and about a quarter is to private equity funds.
    • (for now anyway) Bank lending to NDFIs have lower delinquency rates than similar loans to businesses not secured by real estate.
      • Uncle Sean’s take – there is no visibility to LTV ratios, rate structure, collateralization, hedging, etc. of these NDFI loans on the call report and how they will perform in times of stress (including potential rapid drawdown of those additional amounts classified as unused commitments to NDFI’s on RC-L).

 

  • Bridge (subsidiary of Stripe) has received conditional approval from the OCC for a national trust bank charter.  Once fully approved, the charter will enable Bridge to operate stablecoin products and services under direct federal oversight, including: Custody of digital assets; Stablecoin issuance and orchestration; and Stablecoin reserve management.

 

 

 

 

  • The Huntington National Bank (FDIC 6560; total assets $224B) has partnered with Payabli to empower embedded payment capabilities for the banks business customers by enabling them to accept, issue, and manage transactions entirely within Huntington’s online banking portal.
    • The launch of these new embedded capabilities follows Huntington’s minority investment in Payabli.

 

 

  • 🤔 Rumor Mill…  Axios is reporting that Cross River Bank (FDIC 58410; total assets $8.1B) is allegedly eyeing an IPO.

 

  • BankCherokee (FDIC 8537; total assets $408M) has launched the Alkami Digital Banking Platform to enhance the digital experiences of its retail and business banking customers.

 

  • Mutual Federal Credit Union (charter 24948; total assets $495M) makes a switch by selecting Velera for both debit and credit processing with go-live expected in the summer of 2027.

 

  • Day Air Credit Union (charter 66835; total assets $891M) partners with InvestiFi to enable Day Air’s 54,000 members to trade more than 25 cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, as well as over 6,500 stocks and ETFs, directly through their checking accounts.

 

  • Marshall Community Credit Union (charter 62160; total assets $361M) partners with Mahalo Banking to enhance the CU’s online and mobile banking platform.  The PR also states that the go-live with Mahalo will be in conjunction with the CU’s ongoing core conversion to Corelation Keystone.

 

  • Notable FinTech funding for the week:
    • Vestwell (digital savings platform for workplace retirement, education, and emergency savings) raised $385M in Series E round at a $2B valuation.
    • Sphinx (compliance agent startup for financial institutions) raised a $7.1M seed round.
    • Odynn (AI-powered ‘travel & loyalty’ platform for banks and fintech) raised 9.5M seed round $9.5M seed round

 
 
 Random Uncle Sean stuff:

  • Remembering Reverend Jesse Jackson who passed away this week peacefully and surrounded by his loved ones.  He was 84.  Take a moment and read through his biography as published by the Rainbow PUSH Coalition which Jesse Jackson was Founder & President.
  • You can stop scrolling now – here are the Dad / Bad Jokes to kick the weekend off:
    • Interesting fact…  In almost all situations, a shark will only attack you if you are wet… 🦈😉
    • I told Aunt Patty that I thought the kids got my brains…  She said I was probably right because she still has hers!!! 🤣🤪
    • And one last deep thought for the week…  Drilling is boring… 🤠

 
 
Have a GREAT weekend and please stay safe!
 
Uncle Sean
 
Sometimes known as Sean Mayo – contact me directly for scope and pricing of custom reports / analysis projects at smayo@fedfis.com | 214-604-6961 – or you can contact FedFis Sales Team at 512-960-0911 | info@fedfis.com #FedFisHasTheData FedFis
 
FedFis, LLC disclaimer – The views and opinions of Uncle Sean are of his own and may not necessarily represent the views, endorsements, and/or opinions of FedFis, LLC and its affiliates – we all know he’s a little bit different; but that’s why we love him.